CBO Projects US National Debt to Exceed $50 Trillion

The Congressional Budget Office projects that United States national debt will exceed $50 trillion by 2030, driven by Medicare expansion, subsidies, and the expiration of 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions. A report released October 8 highlights that rising interest rates could further exacerbate this trajectory. If rates average 1.5 percentage points above the February baseline, cumulative deficits could increase by $6 trillion between 2026 and 2036, pushing publicly held debt to 133.1% of GDP.

Fiscal risks are compounded by the United States Department of the Treasury funding a large portion of debt at the short end of the yield curve. With nearly one-third of Treasury debt maturing within 12 to 24 months, refinancing at current rates of 4.5% to 5% is expected to drive annualized interest payments above $1 trillion.

Net interest spending is projected to rise from 3.3% of GDP in 2026 to 4.6% by 2036, potentially consuming nearly one-fifth of all federal spending. Analysts warn that if traditional buyers fail to participate in bond auctions, the Federal Reserve System may be forced to act as the buyer of last resort and monetize the debt to prevent a systemic financial collapse.