US Energy Information Administration Raises Global Oil Price Forecasts

The US Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing falling global stockpiles and tight diesel markets resulting from the ongoing war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Brent crude is now projected to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $98 a barrel for the full year, representing an 8% increase over previous estimates.

Since the conflict began on February 28, oil prices have risen more than 37%. The war has disrupted critical oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and led to attacks on regional energy infrastructure, including the East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

The agency expects a gradual recovery as producers utilize dark transits and alternative export routes. Brent crude is forecast to average $84 a barrel in 2027 as inventories rebuild and US crude production reaches a record 14.3 million barrels per day.