Federal Reserve Study Links AI to Falling Job-Finding Rates

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released an analysis showing that primary workers—those with steady work histories comprising 55% of the US labor pool—have faced the steepest decline in job-finding rates. Between November 2022 and September 2025, the job-finding rate for this group dropped by 13 percentage points, while secondary workers saw a decline of only two percentage points.

The study attributes this trend to the proliferation of generative AI since the public release of ChatGPT in 2023. Roles with high AI exposure have experienced the most significant worsening of outcomes. While the technology may improve task-level productivity for less-experienced staff, it has simultaneously tightened the entry-level market and forced experienced white-collar professionals to accept lower pay.

These labor market shifts occur against a backdrop of broader economic volatility. Despite payroll growth within the information, business services, and professional sectors, the overall US economy recorded a net loss of jobs in July.