JPMorgan Strategist Warns US Equity Exceeds 400% of GDP

Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management David Kelly warned on August 10, 2026, that the market value of all U.S. corporate equity has exceeded 400% of GDP. This valuation significantly surpasses previous market peaks, including the 2000 dotcom bubble at 204% and the 1987 Black Monday crash at 74%. Kelly attributes this surge largely to AI exuberance, noting that two major technology firms recorded $150 billion in unrealized capital gains during the second quarter.

Kelly argues that stock prices cannot maintain this trajectory without broader economic improvements for consumers and workers. This perspective contrasts with that of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who claimed the K-shaped economy has ended in favor of a C-shaped economy where lower-wage earners are catching up.

Other financial data presents a mixed outlook. Bank of America Institute data shows that the top 5% of earners still drive outsized spending growth, while a McKinsey Global Institute report indicates that global wealth is increasingly decoupled from real economic growth. Meanwhile, an economist at Apollo Global Management suggested that high box-office receipts indicate consumers are not yet exhausted.