India Bypasses China's Coal-Heavy Path via Cheap Solar Technology

India is leveraging low-cost solar panels and battery technology to bypass the coal-heavy industrialization path previously taken by China. According to analysis by the energy think tank Ember, solar-plus-storage costs in India are now roughly half those of new coal plants. In contrast, coal was ten times cheaper than solar when China reached a similar per capita electricity use of 1,500 kWh in 2004.

Comparing India's current per-capita income of $11,000 to China's 2012 levels, the report finds that India's per-capita oil use for road transport is 60% lower than China's was at the same milestone. Projections from Ember, the International Energy Agency, and The Energy and Resources Institute suggest India's coal demand will plateau through 2030 or remain at current levels through 2035. This indicates India may reach a $20,000 GDP per capita without ever exceeding the coal burning levels China had at $5,000 GDP per capita.

Despite this shift, India remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels and is considering doubling its coal power capacity by 2047 to ensure energy security. The transition also faces bottlenecks due to China's dominance in manufacturing electricity technologies. Reliance Industries Ltd. recently paused domestic lithium-ion battery production after failing to secure essential equipment from China, highlighting the risks of depending on a single global supplier for the energy transition.