Wargame Warns Europe Unprepared for Russian Invasion of Lithuania

A wargame conducted by the German newspaper Die Welt and the German Wargaming Centre of the Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces suggests Europe is unprepared for a potential Russian invasion. Set in October 2026, the simulation depicts Russia seizing the Lithuanian city of Marijampole using a fake humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad as a pretext. The exercise concluded that Moscow could achieve its goals within days using only 15,000 troops because the United States declined to invoke NATO's Article 5 and Germany and Poland remained indecisive.

Defense officials are divided on the immediate threat. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans warns that Russia is expanding strategic inventories and could move large troop numbers within a year. Conversely, Finnish President Alexander Stubb argues that Russian failures in Ukraine limit its current capacity. Other military leaders, including General Sir Richard Shirreff and Ben Hodges, warn that NATO currently lacks sufficient troop levels in exposed regions like Estonia to prevent an invasion without weeks of delay for reinforcements.

In response to these vulnerabilities, NATO is intensifying preparations. The alliance is deploying the new Allied Reaction Force to move thousands of troops rapidly to threatened borders. Current military efforts include Exercise Steadfast Dart in Greece and Exercise Hyperion Storm in the United Kingdom, focusing on amphibious landings and special operations to deter a conflict that Shirreff characterizes as total war.