Chile Copper Output Hits Two-Decade Low in Third Quarter
Chile reported a 15.1% drop in September copper output, marking the lowest quarterly production level in at least twenty years.
Chilean copper production fell 15.1% in September 2026 to 387,870 tonnes, according to the National Statistics Institute of Chile. The July-to-September quarter represents the weakest performance of 2026 and the lowest quarterly output level in at least two decades. Total production from January to September reached 3.66 million tonnes, an 8.6% decrease compared to the previous year.
Production declines were concentrated at operations run by Codelco and BHP Group, which together accounted for 77% of the net decline. Contributing factors include deteriorating ore grades, scheduled maintenance, severe weather, and a fatal accident on September 23 at the Escondida mine. BHP specifically saw a 19% production drop during the third quarter.
In response to these trends, the Chilean Copper Commission lowered its 2026 production estimate to 4.94 million tonnes, down from an initial 5.27 million tonnes. The commission forecasts a modest 3% rebound to 5.08 million tonnes in 2027. Due to constrained supply and resilient global demand, the commission raised its copper price forecasts to $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027.
