India Gold Retailers Forecast Revenue Growth Despite Volume Decline

Organized gold jewellery retailers in India are projected to see a slower decline in sales volumes during FY27, with a forecasted contraction of 4-6 percent. This represents an improvement over the 8 percent drop recorded in the previous fiscal year.

Crisil Ratings expects industry revenue to grow by 21-23 percent despite the volume dip. This growth is driven by high gold prices, which surged 56 percent last fiscal year and were further impacted by an import duty increase to 15 percent in May 2026. These costs have pressured consumer affordability, leading buyers to shift toward lighter-weight and lower-carat jewellery.

Investment demand for gold bars and coins is expected to fall 4-5 percent. However, organized retailers are likely to capture more market share as consumers increasingly prioritize brand transparency. Operating margins are projected to moderate to 8.5-8.7 percent as promotional spending increases and inventory gains taper. Credit profiles for these retailers are expected to remain stable, supported by measured store expansion and cash accruals.