World Bank Forecasts 23% Rise in Global Commodity Prices

The World Bank Group forecasts that global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, driven by conflict in the Middle East, El Niño effects, and disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments. Energy prices are projected to surge 32%, with Brent oil expected to average between $91 and $92 per barrel. Food commodity prices are anticipated to climb 18% cumulatively across 2026 and 2027.

Metals prices are set to increase 25% due to rising demand for renewable energy, data centers, and electric vehicles. Additionally, precious metals may surge 40% as investors seek safe-haven assets. The institution warns that these shocks threaten to worsen inflation and food insecurity, potentially pushing millions of people into extreme poverty.

To mitigate these economic impacts, the World Bank has made $50 billion to $60 billion available through existing instruments. The organization has already provided $8.7 billion in aid to 25 countries affected by the conflict in the Middle East.