Wedbush Raises Roblox Q3 Estimates Amid GTA 6 Concerns

Wedbush Securities raised its third-quarter estimates for Roblox Corp, forecasting bookings of $1.7 billion and EBITDA of $215 million. The firm attributed this growth to stronger-than-expected engagement, largely driven by the success of the game Steal an Egg, despite a recent weekly decline in that specific title's popularity.

Overall platform hours decreased 7% year over year, but hours excluding fading titles grew 37%. Despite the positive third-quarter outlook, Wedbush remains more cautious than the broader market regarding the fourth quarter. The firm projects bookings of $1.91 billion, falling short of the market consensus of $1.98 billion.

This cautious stance stems from potential engagement losses following the November launch of GTA 6. Wedbush suggests that Roblox must implement a consistent wave of new viral hits and a recalibrated recommendation algorithm to restore investor confidence in long-term growth of 20% or more and revive monetization for users under 13.