Brazil September Inflation Preview Exceeds Forecasts at 0.70%

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics reported that the IPCA-15 inflation preview rose 0.70% in September 2026. This figure reverses a 0.40% deflation reading from August and exceeds the 0.55% median forecast predicted by economists.

Housing costs drove the increase, specifically a 7.42% jump in residential electricity prices resulting from the implementation of the yellow tariff flag and the expiration of the Itaipu bonus. Other significant contributors included a 14% rise in cigarette prices and a 9.82% increase in airfares.

The 12-month inflation rate accelerated to 4.47%, leaving it just below the 4.5% ceiling of the government's target band. This trend follows a September 16 decision by Copom to cut the Selic base rate to 13.75%. The reacceleration of inflation may limit the central bank's ability to implement further monetary easing if full-month data confirms these figures.