JPMorgan Abandons Oil Forecast Amid U.S.-Iran Conflict

JPMorgan has abandoned its baseline outlook for global oil markets, stating it can no longer model the endgame of the prolonged war between the United States and Iran. The bank reports that disruptions have removed approximately 10 million barrels per day from the global supply, pushing Brent crude to around $106 per barrel, which exceeds the bank's estimated fair value of $90.

While global inventories have fallen by 555 million barrels, the price surge has been partially offset by a 4.4 million barrel per day drop in global demand compared to the previous year. In Nigeria, these shocks led to petrol pump prices exceeding N1,400 per litre after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery adjusted wholesale prices.

U.S. officials maintain that the supply disruptions are temporary. However, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and other industry executives warn that a global fuel crisis has arrived.