Middle East Oil Exports Rise Amid Increased Tanker Attacks
Middle East crude oil exports have surpassed pre-war levels despite a surge in projectile attacks against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Aden.
Crude oil exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels during the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. This follows a period from March 2025 to February 2026 where exports averaged 18 million barrels per day before the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Despite the increase in traffic, maritime security has deteriorated. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations has reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden since October 2. On October 1, the Kazimah III, a very large crude carrier owned by the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company S.A.K., was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. The strike caused an onboard fire, though all crew members were safely evacuated.
Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reports seven tanker incidents and suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined kill boxes. According to the firm, this strategy means any ship within the engagement zone is at risk, rather than the attacks being directed at individually selected merchant vessels.
