U.S. Affordable Home Supply Collapses Since 2020

A real estate analysis by Movoto by Lower reveals a collapse in the supply of single-family homes listed under $400,000 across major U.S. cities between 2020 and 2026. The median share of these affordable listings fell from 72.6% to 28% among 228 cities studied.

The decline is most severe in California, where nine of the ten cities with zero active listings under $400,000 are located, including San Francisco and Anaheim. Hesperia, California, experienced the steepest drop, with sub-$400,000 inventory falling from 89.5% to 7%.

In contrast, Midwest markets maintain high availability. Over 94% of listings remain below the $400,000 threshold in cities such as Detroit, Warren, and Lansing, Michigan, as well as Cleveland and Toledo, Ohio. This inventory shortage is compounded by rising borrowing costs; data from Freddie Mac shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased from 3.15% in May 2020 to 6.71% by September 2026.