Polish Foreign Minister Warns Russia Prepares Major Operation

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned on September 24 that Russia is preparing a significant operation before the end of the year. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Sikorski stated that Moscow may manufacture a pretext, such as a false-flag attack, to justify a new wave of domestic mobilization.

While Sikorski described a full-scale invasion of a NATO member as irrational, he cautioned that Russia could employ hybrid warfare to test the alliance's political cohesion. He noted that sabotage, cyberattacks, and drone operations could be used to remain below the threshold of Article 5. He identified the Baltic states as particularly vulnerable and mentioned that Belarusians fear being drawn into the conflict.

Sikorski estimated that Russia could sustain its war effort for another one to two years. He asserted that this timeline could only be shortened if Ukraine significantly destroys Russian refinery capacity, specifically targeting more than half of its capacity to disrupt the Russian war machine.