Canada Cannot Fully Meet U.S. Aluminium Import Needs

An analysis by Morgan Stanley indicates that Canada cannot fully meet United States aluminium import requirements, even if all Canadian domestic production were redirected to the U.S. market. During the first half of 2026, the U.S. imported 1.68 million tonnes of aluminium, with Canada providing 1.16 million tonnes, covering approximately 68% of those needs. Total Canadian production reached nearly 1.6 million tonnes, which represents roughly 95% of U.S. import requirements.

The report suggests that if Washington reduces tariffs on Canadian aluminium from 50% to 25%, Canadian producers would likely prioritize U.S. shipments over duty-free exports to Europe. While this shift could modestly lower the U.S. Midwest aluminium premium, the U.S. would still need to import aluminium from other countries currently facing the 50% tariff.

To address domestic supply shortages, Emirates Global Aluminium and Century Aluminum are planning a new U.S. smelter. The facility is expected to have a capacity of 750,000 tonnes per year to increase the internal supply of the United States, which currently relies on imports for 80% of its consumption.