Middle-Power Democracies Overhaul Intelligence to Counter Russia and China
Japan, Germany, and other middle-power democracies are expanding their espionage capabilities to reduce reliance on the United States and counter autocratic threats.
Several middle-power democracies, including Japan, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, are overhauling their intelligence services to counter threats from Russia and China. These nations are shifting away from historical neutrality or pacifism toward active espionage following failures to predict the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Japan has launched the National Intelligence Council and the National Intelligence Bureau to consolidate information and is pursuing the creation of a full foreign intelligence agency. In Germany, the Federal Intelligence Service is seeking parliamentary reforms to grant it broader authority to hack opponents and employ kinetic means abroad. Martin Jäger, chief of the service, advocated for expanded operational powers to make foreign foes feel the pain.
Sweden is establishing a new civilian foreign-intelligence agency, while Canada is debating the creation of a dedicated foreign-espionage body to supplement the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. In the Netherlands, the General Intelligence and Security Service is seeking a yearly mandate to act against opponents without requiring prior approval for every operation.
These shifts are driven by autocratic aggression and uncertainty regarding the reliability of intelligence sharing with the United States under President Donald Trump. Consequently, these allies are developing contingency plans and increasing intra-European cooperation, with the French Directorate General for External Security reporting unprecedented levels of collaboration among European services.
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