US Midterm Election Prediction Market Volume Surges to $220 Million

Trading volume for US midterm election bets on prediction markets has surged to over $220 million, more than double the $92 million wagered during the 2024 cycle. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow traders to buy and sell binary contracts on race outcomes, including winners, margins of victory, and voter turnout.

While most volume is concentrated on race winners—specifically the Texas Senate contest between James Talarico and Ken Paxton—traders are increasingly betting on more detailed race variables. The platforms argue that these markets provide a real-time gauge of public sentiment and reliable information.

Policymakers and the Anti-Corruption Data Collective have raised concerns that these financial tools could facilitate insider trading or undermine democratic integrity. In response to these risks, Kalshi has blocked trades by politicians and campaign workers, while Polymarket relies on surveillance systems to maintain unbiased information.