US Treasury Plans to Borrow $618 Billion in Q4

The United States Department of the Treasury announced it expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt during the fourth quarter of 2026. This estimate is $10 billion lower than the projection provided in August, a change the agency attributes to a higher-than-assumed starting cash balance.

Despite the lower overall figure, borrowing needs are $24 billion higher than the August projection when the starting cash cushion is excluded, as lower projected net cash flows partially offset the balance gains. The Treasury reported actual borrowing of $742 billion for the third quarter of 2026, which left the agency with a cash balance of $984 billion at the end of September.

Looking forward, the Treasury assumes a cash balance of $850 billion by the end of December and projects borrowing $800 billion for the first quarter of 2027 to reach a target cash balance of $1 trillion by March. The agency will release further details regarding the Quarterly Refunding and potential changes to auction sizes on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.