Florida Governor's Race Becomes Toss Up as Jolly Gains

The Florida gubernatorial race between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly has tightened significantly ahead of the November 3, 2026, election. Decision Desk HQ recently reclassified the contest as a "Toss Up," noting that while Donalds maintains a 60% win probability, that figure has dropped from 68% at the start of September.

Other forecasters, including Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have similarly upgraded Jolly's standing. Public polling from St. Pete Polls indicates the candidates are currently in a statistical tie. Despite the narrowing gap in polling, a substantial financial disparity remains. As of September 11, Donalds held between $43.5 million and $44 million in cash, while Jolly had $6.4 million.

The candidates are divided over the expansion of AI data centers. Jolly is advocating for a one-year statewide moratorium to study environmental impacts, whereas Donalds supports leaving control to local governments. Other primary campaign issues include property insurance and the cost of living.