Analysts Raise Singapore Export Forecasts Amid AI Demand

Several financial institutions and government agencies have raised their 2026 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth forecasts for Singapore. Enterprise Singapore increased its projected growth band to 14% to 16%, up from a previous estimate of 3% to 5%. Private forecasts are even more optimistic, with RHB Investment Bank raising its projection to 15.5% and Maybank Investment Bank upgrading its forecast to 18%.

The revisions follow a 24.2% year-on-year jump in July exports, contributing to a 19.4% growth rate for the first seven months of 2026. Analysts attribute this acceleration to a global artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout and substantial capital expenditure by technology firms and hyperscalers, which sustains demand for memory and compute chips through 2027.

Despite the growth, United Overseas Bank and RHB warn of significant downside risks. A 12.5% US tariff imposed on July 24 under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 is estimated to affect one-third of Singapore's exports. Furthermore, a White House report titled 'The Great Transshipment Scam' classified Singapore as a Tier 3 jurisdiction for risks associated with the illegal transshipment of Chinese goods to the US, which may lead to stricter tariff enforcement.