Economists Project Higher US Interest Rates Through 2030

A Wall Street Journal survey of 71 economists reveals a growing consensus that higher U.S. interest rates will persist for the remainder of the decade. Analysts now project the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to end 2026 at 5.1%, a significant increase from the 4.4% forecast in July.

Economists attribute this shift to improving economic growth, new inflationary pressures, and concerns over the U.S. national debt burden. The survey notes that interest payments on the national debt now exceed military spending, further straining the federal budget. Some analysts believe the Federal Reserve has fallen behind in taming inflation, while others point to the AI infrastructure build-out as a driver of higher yields.

Contrasting views exist regarding the future trajectory. While the Congressional Budget Office projected the 10-year yield would not exceed 4.3% for the rest of the decade, and the White House Office of Management and Budget expected yields to fall into the mid-3% range, survey respondents remain more pessimistic. Some economists warn that a Republican sweep in the upcoming midterms could trigger further fiscal expansion and increased inflation, though a fragile white-collar labor market might eventually force the central bank to pivot toward rate cuts.