Goldman Sachs Raises AI Job Displacement Forecast to 9%

Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast of AI-driven job displacement to 9% of workers, up from a previous estimate of 6% to 7%. An analysis of 15,000 workers laid off between 2016 and 2025 led by economist Pierfrancesco Mei found that those displaced by AI face harder transitions back into the workforce. These employees take approximately one month longer to find new jobs and are 10 percentage points more likely to remain unemployed after one year.

Age significantly impacts these transitions. Older displaced workers take five weeks longer than other displaced workers to return to full-time employment, while younger workers take about three weeks longer. In response, college students are increasingly selecting majors with lower AI exposure, such as engineering and healthcare.

Simultaneously, companies are facing a management burden known as botsitting. An October 2026 survey by Founder Reports found that 60% of U.S. workers who train others believe overseeing AI output requires as much effort as training a human hire. Over 40% of managers spend at least three hours weekly on this oversight. Experts warn that replacing entry-level roles with AI may create a future shortage of experienced managers, as cutting junior hires simply delays necessary training costs.