SBI Research Predicts RBI Will Hold Interest Rates Steady

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain its current policy rates during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for August 3–5, 2026. This projected status quo follows findings from SBI Research that consumer price inflation will likely remain above 5 percent for the next two quarters.

SBI Research indicates that Q1 FY27 domestic product growth could exceed 7 percent, marking an improvement over previous projections. The research wing noted that the central bank had previously downgraded GDP growth estimates due to conflict in the Middle East, but current conditions now suggest stronger growth than anticipated.

An explicitly dovish stance is considered improbable due to volatility in oil prices, pressure on the rupee, and caution regarding external flows. Separately, the report cautions that global companies may be over-investing in AI infrastructure, suggesting the potential existence of an AI bubble.