European Central Bank Forecasts Higher 2027 Wage Growth

The European Central Bank updated its wage tracker on November 4, 2026, forecasting that negotiated wage growth in the euro area will be slightly higher during the first three quarters of 2027 than in the full year of 2026. The bank's structural growth measure, which excludes one-off payments, averages 2.8% for the first three quarters of 2027, an increase from 2.6% in 2026.

The headline indicator, which smooths one-off payments over a 12-month period, is projected at 2.8% for the first half of 2027. This figure is expected to decline to 2.4% in the third quarter of 2027. The bank noted that this third-quarter decline is based on limited employee coverage, which drops to 23.3% for that specific period.

To improve its data outlook, the bank extended the tracker's forward-looking horizon to the end of September 2027. The European Central Bank expects to further extend this horizon to cover the full year of 2027 by December 2026.