Low Trust and Negative Spending Mark US Midterms

American voters are entering the midterm elections amid widespread anger and a significant decline in trust toward government institutions. A survey by the Pew Research Center found that only 25% of Americans hold a favorable view of Congress, representing a nine percentage point drop over the past year. This dissatisfaction is bipartisan, with favorability ratings at 35% for Republicans and 16% for Democrats.

This climate of distrust has shifted campaign strategies toward opposition and negative messaging. Filings from the Federal Election Commission show that outside groups and super PACs spent $612 million on negative ads in September alone, a figure more than triple the amount spent on positive messaging.

Despite the volatility, conventional candidates maintain a competitive edge. While 13 incumbents lost their renomination during the primaries, an analysis by the Brookings Institution indicates that mainstream candidates continue to outperform ideological flank candidates in the most competitive races.