OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report. This represents the third consecutive downward revision, dropping from a previous estimate of 970,000 barrels per day. The organization attributed the decline primarily to lower consumption forecasts for China and India.

These revisions follow a period of significant economic instability and supply disruptions caused by a war between the United States and Iran, which resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for several months. Following an interim peace agreement, Gulf members resumed production, contributing to an increase in OPEC+ crude output to 36.28 million barrels per day in June.

While OPEC raised its 2027 growth projection by 210,000 barrels per day to 1.94 million barrels per day due to a potentially resilient world economy, other agencies remain cautious. The International Energy Agency maintains a more pessimistic outlook, projecting an actual demand decline of 1 million barrels per day for 2026.