IEA Forecasts 4,800 GW Renewable Growth by 2031

The International Energy Agency projects that global renewable power capacity will increase by nearly 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031. This growth rate is 60% higher than the previous six-year period, with solar photovoltaic power expected to drive over three-quarters of the additions. The agency notes that energy security and a desire to reduce reliance on imported fuels following the Hormuz crisis and the Iran war have replaced environmental concerns as the primary drivers of expansion.

China will remain the largest contributor to this growth, though its share is projected to decline to an average of 53% as India emerges as the second-largest market. For the first time, renewable capacity additions in emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to match those in advanced economies. In Europe, the agency forecasts 617 GW of new capacity by 2031, with Germany accounting for nearly 30% of that growth. However, the agency lowered its European wind energy forecast by 15% due to permitting delays and reduced its distributed solar forecast by 14% as financial incentives decline.

Other shifts include a 40% increase in the global biofuel forecast, particularly in Latin America and Southeast Asia, and a 60% projected increase in renewables for transport. The agency emphasizes an urgent need for grid investments to accommodate 3,000 GW of projects currently awaiting connection. Meanwhile, the Government of Italy has already begun implementing supply-chain resilience requirements in its 2025 FER X tender.