Parti Québécois Leads Polls Ahead of Quebec General Election
The separatist Parti Québécois is projected to win Quebec's October 5 election on a platform promising a third independence referendum from Canada.
The Parti Québécois (PQ) is favored to win the Quebec general election on Monday, October 5, 2026, driven by a desire for change after eight years of Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) rule. PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to pursue a unilateral declaration of independence and a separate constitution, specifically vowing to hold a third sovereignty referendum after 2029. He argues this may be the final opportunity for independence due to rising immigration, though polls suggest only 30 percent of voters currently support the move.
Incumbent Premier Christine Fréchette and the CAQ have warned that a referendum would cause colossal economic damage and immediate instability. Fréchette's own campaign declined after she refused to send bilingual election notices and remained ambiguous on separatism. Other rivals, including Liberal leader Charles Milliard and Conservative leader Éric Duhaime, have positioned themselves as federalist alternatives. Duhaime pledged to block any referendum if the Conservative Party holds the balance of power, while Milliard campaigned as the only true federalist candidate.
St-Pierre Plamondon dismissed these warnings as fearmongering and a last-ditch effort by opponents. Meanwhile, First Nations leaders, including Lucien Wabanonik, have demanded that any sovereignty plans recognize Indigenous rights to self-determination. Approximately 25 percent of eligible voters have already cast ballots via advanced polls as the five main parties make their final appeals.
