Susquehanna Warns AI Data Center Projects Face Regulatory Risks

Susquehanna Financial Group warned that approximately 12 gigawatts of artificial intelligence data center projects planned for 2028 to 2030 could be canceled in a worst-case scenario. The financial services firm attributed this risk to potential regulatory challenges expected to emerge following the 2026 midterm elections.

Analysis from the firm indicates that 60 gigawatts, representing 40% of the 148 gigawatts of training-focused AI data center projects planned for 2025 to 2030, face potential delays due to pending regulatory approvals. While 2027 remains the expected peak year for new installations because most permits are already secured, the risk is concentrated in the 2028 to 2030 window.

Susquehanna noted that a recovery in non-AI semiconductor demand and enterprise-driven inferencing workloads could partially offset these shortfalls. However, in the worst-case scenario, the semiconductor industry could see a 10% year-over-year revenue decline.