Exim Bank Projects 28.7% Growth in India Merchandise Exports

The Export-Import Bank of India projects that India's merchandise exports will grow 28.7% year-on-year to $141.8 billion during the third quarter of FY27, covering October through December. Non-oil exports are expected to reach $120.3 billion, a 21.9% increase, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are projected at $106.4 billion.

The bank attributes this growth to market and product diversification, the use of recent trade agreements, and improving global and domestic growth. Additionally, revenues have been bolstered by rising commodity prices for food, metals, and minerals driven by war-induced inflation. Despite the positive forecast, the bank warns that tighter global monetary policy and evolving trade regulations present downside risks.

Supporting this outlook, commerce department data shows that exports in September 2026 rose 23% to $44.4 billion. China remains the largest trading partner for India during the April-September period.