EIA Forecasts 21% Heating Oil Cost Spike for US Households

The Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. households relying on heating oil will see winter expenditures rise by an average of 21% compared to last year. This increase is driven by a projected 34% jump in heating oil prices to an average of $5.26 per gallon, caused by tight global distillate markets and refinery disruptions in Russia, China, and the Middle East. While a predicted milder winter in the Northeast may reduce overall consumption by 9%, the price surge is expected to cause significant sticker shock.

In contrast, households using natural gas and propane are expected to see costs decrease by 9% and 3% respectively, supported by strong production growth and inventories 2% above the five-year average. Electricity costs are forecast to rise by 4%.

The price spike is most acute in the Northeast, where states like Maine and Massachusetts have already reported retail heating oil cost increases between 73% and 79%. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association predicts a more severe impact than the federal government, estimating average household costs could reach $2,625—an increase of roughly $875 over last winter.

In response, Senator Bernie Sanders and a group of Democratic senators requested $3 billion in additional funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). Representative Chris Pappas of New Hampshire also introduced legislation to increase funding, as current fiscal 2026 funding remains flat at $4.1 billion. Advocates warn this gap could leave up to 500,000 fewer households without necessary aid.