Analyst Predicts 80 Percent Chance of Tesla SpaceX Merger

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates a more than 80 percent probability that Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. will merge within the next year. The potential consolidation follows a June 2026 SpaceX initial public offering that established a public valuation, making a stock-based merger more feasible. Tesla had already positioned itself for such a move by investing $2 billion in SpaceX in early 2026 to acquire nearly 19 million shares.

A merger would integrate Tesla's electric vehicles, robotaxis, and energy storage with SpaceX's Starlink satellite connectivity and AI infrastructure. The companies maintain deep operational ties, including a 2025 arrangement where SpaceX and xAI purchased approximately $650 million in goods and services from Tesla. They are currently collaborating on the Macrohard AI platform and planning two chip factories at the Terafab facility in Austin, Texas.

Despite the strategic alignment with Elon Musk's goals for robotics and artificial intelligence, financial risks remain. SpaceX reported net losses of $4.9 billion in 2025, and its high capital expenditures could potentially dilute Tesla shareholder value.