Benjamin Netanyahu
Campaigning for October 27 reelection with Likud polling short of a majority, Netanyahu refuses to withdraw from Gaza until Hamas disarms, condemns settler violence under mounting U.S. pressure, and faces a newly disclosed secret 2014 Hamas backchannel that cuts against his hardline image.
Benjamin Netanyahu enters the final stretch before Israel's October 27 election trailing in polls, with Likud projected around 51 seats and JPMorgan assigning 55% odds to rival Gadi Eisenkot winning. He campaigns on a vow to block Palestinian statehood, telling voters that as long as he is prime minister no Iranian-controlled Palestinian state will arise, and accusing rivals Eisenkot, Lieberman, and Golan of plotting a left-wing government to establish one.
On Gaza, Netanyahu refuses to withdraw from the 60% of the Strip Israel controls until Hamas physically surrenders its weapons and destroys its tunnel network, the sole block on deploying a U.S.-assembled International Stabilization Force. He and Defense Minister Israel Katz continued strikes under the ceasefire, hitting a desalination plant and killing Hamas operatives. They threatened targeted assassinations and forced evacuations over children's kite launches, drawing condemnation from the UN and the U.S.-led ceasefire board as disproportionate. President Trump publicly stated Israel should not be striking in Gaza.
Netanyahu authorized a strike on Syria's Abu al-Duhur air base to pre-empt Turkish deployment. Turkey responded by seeking his Interpol arrest on genocide and torture charges. U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack called the strike an unnecessary escalation and speculated it was electoral bait, an accusation Katz rejected.
On the West Bank, he condemned settler attacks on Palestinians and an NBC News crew, calling the perpetrators a handful of rioters, and criticized MK Zvi Sukkot's sledgehammer destruction of a Palestinian memorial. But he faces mounting U.S. pressure: 45 Senate Democrats demanded he curb settler violence and investigate nine American citizen deaths, Ambassador Mike Huckabee branded militant settlers Israeli terrorists and warned of sanctions, and 600 retired Israeli security officials urged Trump to pressure him. Finance Minister Smotrich defended Sukkot, and Netanyahu snubbed coalition partner Ben Gvir at a public event, exposing coalition fractures.
A newly surfaced disclosure that Netanyahu ran a secret backchannel to Hamas during the 2014 war threatens to undercut his anti-Hamas hardline image ahead of the vote. He also disclosed an Iranian plot to assassinate his son Yair in Miami, requiring an emergency Shin Bet extraction, and used it to demand protection for all prime ministerial candidates after the agency denied Eisenkot a permanent detail.
On their plate
Netanyahu is shaping the Likud candidate list, granting uncontested spots to Saar, Katz, and Haim Katz while recruiting tech entrepreneur Oren Dobronsky for an AI portfolio and planning to purge Haredi members suspected of vote-swapping. Likud polls around 51 seats, short of the 61 needed, and JPMorgan assigns 55% odds to rival Gadi Eisenkot winning. He made blocking a Palestinian state a central pledge and accused rivals Eisenkot, Lieberman, and Golan of plotting a left-wing government with Mansour Abbas.
Netanyahu rejects the U.S.-brokered 20-point Trump plan requiring Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, insisting Hamas must physically surrender its weapons and destroy its tunnel network first. Israel controls over 60% of Gaza and continues strikes that killed at least 17 including children. He and Defense Minister Katz ordered zero-tolerance on kite and balloon launches, threatening targeted assassinations and forced evacuations, which the UN and the U.S.-led ceasefire board condemned as disproportionate. President Trump rebuked Israel for striking in Gaza.
Netanyahu publicly condemned settler attacks in Qusra and Jalud, including the besieging of Palestinian homes and an assault on an NBC News crew, calling the perpetrators a handful of rioters who harm Israel's standing. He also criticized MK Zvi Sukkot's sledgehammer destruction of a Palestinian memorial. But he faces escalating U.S. pressure: 45 Senate Democrats demanded he curb settler violence and investigate nine American citizen deaths, 29 Democrats led by Gallego pressed him to rescind E1 housing tenders, and Ambassador Mike Huckabee branded militant settlers Israeli terrorists and warned of sanctions. Finance Minister Smotrich defended Sukkot, exposing a coalition fault line.
Netanyahu authorized a strike on Syria's Abu al-Duhur air base to pre-empt Turkish deployment, declaring Israel would not accept a Turkish military presence in Syria reaching south. Turkey responded by seeking his arrest through Interpol on genocide and torture charges. U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack called the strike an unnecessary escalation and speculated it was electoral bait, while Defense Minister Katz defended it on intelligence grounds. Barrack is working to restore Turkey-Israel dialogue.
Netanyahu disclosed an Iranian plot to assassinate his son Yair in Miami, requiring an emergency Shin Bet extraction, and used it to demand increased security for all prime ministerial candidates, tying it to the Shin Bet's denial of protection for rival Eisenkot. He ordered Shin Bet director David Zini to provide Eisenkot protection after Zini denied him a permanent detail, a move Eisenkot's campaign alleged was politically motivated. Separately, a disclosure revealed Netanyahu ran a secret backchannel to Hamas during the 2014 Gaza war via businessman Shlomi Fogel and NSC chief Yossi Cohen without his security establishment's knowledge, initially denying it before being shown proof he authorized the talks.
Key relationships
Katz, Netanyahu's defense minister, jointly ordered zero-tolerance on Gaza kite launches and defended the Syria strike on intelligence grounds against U.S. criticism.
Netanyahu accused Eisenkot of plotting a left-wing government to establish a Palestinian state, then ordered Shin Bet to provide him security after the agency denied Eisenkot a permanent detail, a move Eisenkot's campaign called politically motivated.
Netanyahu condemned MK Zvi Sukkot's destruction of a Palestinian memorial, while Smotrich defended Sukkot, exposing a coalition fault line over settler extremism.
Barrack, U.S. ambassador to Turkey, criticized Netanyahu's Syria strike as an unnecessary escalation and speculated it was electoral bait, while working to restore Turkey-Israel dialogue.
Netanyahu offered Winter a reserved Likud slot to prevent his new Amcha Yisrael party from splitting the right-wing vote; Winter rejected it and launched an independent campaign, though he said he would still recommend Netanyahu to form a government.
After Mamdani called for U.S. enforcement of an ICC arrest warrant against Netanyahu and called him a war criminal who belonged in The Hague, Netanyahu's Likud party launched a billboard campaign depicting Mamdani alongside the leaders of Iran, Hezbollah, and Turkey.
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