Donald Trump
Authorized Sept 1 IRGC strikes after rejecting Iran's peace-deal revival, pushing oil above $100/bbl in a six-month stalemate. Imposed 50% Canada tariffs and duties on 60 economies while sitting on an untouched $403M war chest as voters defect and his Army secretary resigns mid-conflict.
Donald Trump enters September with a six-month Iran war at strategic stalemate, a global tariff offensive provoking retaliation from allies and adversaries alike, and a midterm campaign he is bankrolling reluctantly if at all.
On Sept 1 he authorized large-scale air strikes on IRGC radar and minelaying forces across Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Konarak, and Qeshm Island, retaliation for Iran's mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan. He warned a "much harder and higher level" attack is "waiting in the wings," while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced weekly bank sanctions to "economically asphyxiate" Iran. Oil moved above $100 a barrel. The war has degraded 80 to 90 percent of Iran's missile capability but failed to topple the regime; Iran still exports oil and leverages the Strait. Trump rejected Iran's attempt to revive the June peace memorandum, branding the country "officially a Failed Nation."
On trade, he reimposed tariffs after the Supreme Court invalidated earlier duties — 10 to 12.5 percent on roughly 60 economies, 25 percent on Brazil, 50 percent on Canadian goods — and signed an order renaming Lake Ontario to "Lake America." PM Mark Carney imposed dollar-for-dollar retaliation and is working to bypass the White House entirely, shifting trade ties toward China and the EU.
Trump sits on a $403M-plus MAGA Inc. war chest and has spent almost nothing, telling allies "I can spend it on pretty much anything I want." His own voters in eight competitive districts are publicly breaking with him over inflation and the war. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned Sept 1 after months of friction with SecDef Pete Hegseth, leaving the Army with no confirmed leadership mid-conflict. Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall publicly accused Caine and Hegseth of treating legal questions as policy choices to avoid crossing Trump, citing a war launched without congressional authorization and National Guard deployments to Democratic cities without local consent.
On their plate
Trump authorized large-scale Sept 1 air strikes on IRGC radar and minelaying forces in Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Konarak, and Qeshm Island, warning a "much harder and higher level" attack is ready. The six-month war has reached strategic stalemate: strikes degraded 80-90% of Iran's missile capability but failed to topple the regime, and Iran still exports oil and uses the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. Trump rejected Iran's attempt to revive the June peace memorandum, vowing to "hit them hard," while Bessent announced weekly bank sanctions to "economically asphyxiate" Iran and the EU endorsed the campaign. Oil moved above $100/bbl.
After the Supreme Court invalidated earlier duties, Trump reimposed a trade wall: 10-12.5% on ~60 economies, 25% on Brazil (beef and coffee exempt), 50% on Canadian beer, furniture, and apparel, and up to 100% on certain pharmaceuticals. He imposed 50% tariffs on $20B of Canadian imports and signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario to "Lake America," posting annexation maps on Truth Social. PM Mark Carney implemented dollar-for-dollar retaliation effective Sept 8 and is running a "Donut Strategy" to bypass the White House and influence U.S. midterm voters. Trump also imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian imports and designated two Brazilian gangs as terrorist organizations in an alleged effort to boost far-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro over President Lula.
Trump holds a $403M+ MAGA Inc. war chest and has spent almost nothing for the midterms, frustrating Republicans facing rising ad costs. He has only promised to "help Ken Paxton" without committing the $100-200M senators want, telling allies "I can spend it on pretty much anything I want." He is headlining a $250,000-per-person roundtable at the GOP's Dallas convention Sept 9. Meanwhile, his own voters in eight competitive districts are publicly criticizing him over inflation, the Iran war, and White House ballroom construction. GOP senators including Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Kevin Cramer are breaking with him on tariffs and farm-country fallout.
Trump hosted oil executives from Chevron, Valero, Marathon, PBF, and Delek at the White House Sept 1 to push gasoline prices down from $4.10/gallon (up 38% since February), accusing refiners of gouging and directing the DOJ to investigate. He brokered a 100-year deal with North American Blue Energy Partners securing a 55% U.S. stake in Venezuelan oil fields, though experts see little near-term relief and Trump concedes prices may not fall before the election. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 289.7M barrels, its lowest since 1982, after a 172-million-barrel release tied to the Iran war.
Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned to Trump on Sept 1 after months of friction with SecDef Hegseth over Hegseth's purge of senior officers, including the April firing of Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and 80+ blocked promotions. The Army now has no Senate-confirmed civilian or uniformed leadership during the Iran conflict. Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall publicly accused Chairman Dan Caine and Hegseth of treating legal and ethical questions as policy choices to avoid conflict with Trump, citing a war launched without congressional authorization and National Guard deployments to Democratic cities without local consent. Caine wrote Sen. Slotkin that the military has no plans to deploy personnel to polling places.
Key relationships
Hegseth is executing Trump's military and social-policy agenda — pausing transgender accessions, pursuing strikes on Iran — but his purge of senior officers triggered Army Secretary Driscoll's resignation and warnings of a readiness crisis during the Iran conflict.
Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian imports and renamed Lake Ontario to "Lake America," prompting Carney to implement dollar-for-dollar retaliation starting Sept 8 and pursue a "Donut Strategy" to bypass the White House and shift trade ties to China and the EU.
Netanyahu publicly claims he leveraged his U.S. media presence and knowledge of American leaders to bring Trump into the Iran war, having pitched him at a White House intelligence briefing 17 days before the Feb 28 launch. Some of Netanyahu's pre-war predictions on Iran's missile program and regime change proved incorrect.
Trump claimed on Truth Social that Chicago violence is at "record levels" and urged Pritzker to request federal aid; Pritzker responded that Trump "is not fighting crime — he is committing and enabling it." Chicago PD data shows murders up only 4% year-over-year while overall violent crime complaints fell about 10%.
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