James Talarico
The Texas state representative and former seminarian runs as a cost-of-living underdog against Ken Paxton, holding narrow polling leads in a race with more than $500 million in ad spending.
James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas race for U.S. Senate, with early voting opening October 19 and the election November 3. Polls put him two to six points ahead, though the Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up. A win would be the first for a Democrat in Texas statewide office since 1994.
The contest has become one of the most expensive nonpresidential races in U.S. history, with more than $500 million in ad spending. Talarico raised a record $64 million in the third quarter, more than $134 million overall, against roughly $168 million in pro-Paxton outside money from Elon Musk. He casts himself as the underdog, telling supporters: "We are going up against our own Goliaths. You are my slingshot."
He has moderated to match the battleground, voicing support for the oil and gas industry and opposing transgender athletes in girls' sports where safety or fairness is at stake; he also argues the Trump administration's immigration enforcement has gone too far. His core pitch is affordability: "Too many Texans feel like they're drowning, the cost of groceries, gas, healthcare."
At a CNN-Jubilee town hall in Fort Worth, which Paxton declined to attend, the former seminarian defended his pro-choice position as compatible with his Christian faith, arguing "the Bible is silent on the issue of abortion." Catholic theologian Jody Hunt challenged him from the audience.
The closing stretch carries friction. Texas Democratic Party official Sheena Flanary was recorded saying his primary win over Jasmine Crockett "felt intentionally racist and sexist," and he returned to public view after a 10-day absence his campaign attributed to the flu. He is pressing Paxton to debate, calling him "a puppet," while Willie Nelson, Dolly Parton, and Representatives Joaquin Castro and Josey Garcia have endorsed him.
On their plate
Talarico leads Paxton by two to six points across recent polls, including 50-47 in a University of Texas survey, and Decision Desk HQ gives him a 56 percent chance to flip the GOP-held seat. The Cook Political Report still rates the race a toss-up: his edge comes largely from voters under 45, Paxton leads among those 50 and older, and turnout will decide the outcome. With early voting starting October 19 and the election November 3, a win would be the first for a Democrat in Texas statewide office since 1994.
The contest has become one of the most expensive nonpresidential races in U.S. history, with more than $500 million in ad spending. Talarico raised a record $64 million in the third quarter, more than $134 million overall, against roughly $168 million in pro-Paxton outside money from Elon Musk and about $200 million from the Senate Leadership Fund's Texas PAC. A new $100 million Senate Republican ad commitment for Paxton came after a Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed him five points ahead.
His core pitch is affordability, telling Texans "Too many Texans feel like they're drowning, the cost of groceries, gas, healthcare" as economic pessimism grows nationally ahead of the November 3 midterms. He has moderated to match the battleground, voicing support for the oil and gas industry and opposing transgender athletes in girls' sports where safety or fairness is at stake, a shift that drew criticism from the Human Rights Campaign. He also argues the Trump administration's immigration enforcement has gone too far, as ICE's mass-deportation tactics and fatal shootings of asylum seekers in Texas become midterm issues in his Senate race.
Appearing alone at a CNN-Jubilee town hall in Fort Worth after Paxton declined to attend, Talarico defended his pro-choice position as compatible with his Christian faith, arguing "the Bible is silent on the issue of abortion" and that he does not view abortion as murder. "If we are authentically pro-life, I think we should be disturbed by the outcomes of this extreme abortion ban," he said. Catholic theologian Jody Hunt challenged him from the audience, countering that "the Bible is not silent on abortion" and criticizing his support for expanded contraception and sex education.
Texas Democratic Party official Sheena Flanary was recorded saying his primary win over Jasmine Crockett "felt intentionally racist and sexist" and alleging he rebuffed her offers of support. He recently returned to public view after a 10-day absence following a September 28 New York fundraiser his campaign attributed to the flu, having canceled an Austin grassroots fundraiser and a Central Texas African American civic-engagement symposium. He is pressing Paxton to debate after Paxton declined every invitation, saying Paxton "hasn't set foot on a debate stage in over a decade" and calling him "a puppet."
Key relationships
His Republican opponent in the Senate race, whom Talarico leads narrowly in the polls while pressing him to debate after Paxton declined every invitation.
Endorsed him in a campaign video: "He's a good man who will be a good senator for the state of Texas. Please vote, and vote for James Talarico."
The Catholic theologian challenged his abortion stance face to face at a CNN-Jubilee town hall, telling him "the Bible is not silent on abortion" and criticizing his support for expanded contraception and sex education.
The country-music legend endorsed him after the two met at Nelson's Fourth of July picnic in Austin.
The U.S. representative endorsed him at a San Antonio press conference ahead of Trump's rally there for Paxton.
The state representative joined Castro in endorsing him at a San Antonio press conference ahead of Trump's rally for Paxton.
Publicly defended him against a text-message attack campaign from AMERIPAC telling white voters that Talarico called white men the top terror threat in America.
