Oil Flows Recover in Strait of Hormuz Amid US-Iran Conflict

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz recovered in September 2026, with daily flows reaching between 10 million and 13.1 million barrels. This rebound follows a military operation by the Federal government of the United States to protect tankers and the restoration of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline after Houthi attacks. Despite the increase, volumes remain below the pre-war level of 16 million barrels per day, and Brent crude prices remain elevated between $103 and $107 per barrel due to a cumulative supply deficit of over one billion barrels.

Tensions persist as Iran continues to attack tankers and energy infrastructure. Hossein Mohebbi of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused Donald Trump of lying about Iranian nuclear ambitions, claiming the U.S. seeks to destroy Iran due to its "vastness." While Donald Trump has asserted the strait is open, the International Maritime Organization warned that the waterway is not safe for navigation, reporting 85 ship attacks and 24 mariner deaths since February.

In Washington, a dispute emerged over oil-flow data. Some congressional Democrats and analysts suggested that United States Central Command inflated shipment figures under White House pressure, a claim the Department of Defense rejected. Meanwhile, the Government of Qatar is attempting to broker a deal between Washington and Tehran, but Iranian officials expressed deep pessimism regarding a resolution due to incompatible red lines and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.