NATO Warns of Intensifying Russian Hybrid Warfare and Sabotage

European intelligence agencies and NATO officials are warning of an intensifying Russian shadow war characterized by hybrid attacks, sabotage, and cyber operations targeting Western allies. Recent incidents include a drone carrying explosives sent to Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany, a drone strike on a passenger train near the Polish border, and a Russian frigate firing flares at a Danish military helicopter. In Lithuania, NATO jets shot down a Russian drone, while weather balloons floated from Belarus disrupted Vilnius airport.

Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, stated that the alliance is prepared for these non-conventional threats, though he urged allies to remain calm. The Defence Intelligence Service of Denmark issued a high-profile assessment warning that Russia is more willing to take risks and may launch limited military attacks—such as long-range missile strikes or small troop deployments—against NATO members bordering Russia. While a full-scale invasion is considered highly unlikely, officials note the potential lethality of sabotage is increasing.

Russia has denied involvement in these activities, with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov characterizing Western sanctions as a hybrid war. Meanwhile, the Security Service of Ukraine disrupted espionage networks in Kherson, and European agencies uncovered plots to use criminal networks for infrastructure sabotage and an assassination attempt against the head of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. In response, NATO is increasing intelligence-sharing and Poland has pledged additional Patriot interceptors to bolster defenses.