Fitch Ratings Shifts Nigeria Outlook to Positive

Fitch Ratings revised the outlook for Nigeria's Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings from Stable to Positive on October 9, 2026, while affirming the ratings at 'B'. The agency attributed the shift to ongoing policy framework reforms, greater naira flexibility, and a faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which reached $54.9 billion by September 25, 2026.

Fitch Ratings noted that Nigeria has met its OPEC crude oil target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026 and expects real GDP growth of 4.3% for the year. The agency expressed increased confidence that this economic momentum will persist through the 2027 general elections. However, the agency identified weak governance, high inflation, low government revenue, and a heavy dependence on hydrocarbons as remaining constraints.

Minister of Finance Taiwo Oyedele stated the revision validates the difficult reforms implemented under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, specifically the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates. Oyedele emphasized that these measures are intended to lower the cost of capital and attract private investment to create jobs.

This revision follows a series of positive adjustments for Nigeria in 2026, including upgrades or outlook shifts from S&P Global Ratings and Moody's Ratings, as well as FTSE Russell returning the country to Frontier Market status in September.