EU Population to Shrink 11.7 Percent by 2100

The European Commission released its third report on demographic transformation, projecting that the European Union population will peak at 453.3 million in 2029 before declining to 398.8 million by 2100. This 11.7 percent drop is driven by falling fertility rates, which reached 1.34 children per woman in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1. While improved healthcare has increased life expectancy to 81.5 years, the resulting aging citizenry will see those aged 20–40 outnumbered by those over 65 by 2038.

Recent data from Eurostat shows the EU population reached 452 million in January 2026, growing for five consecutive years as net migration offset negative natural change. However, this trend varies by region, with sharp declines in Latvia, Estonia, and Hungary. In France, where deaths exceeded births for the first time since World War II in 2025, President Emmanuel Macron called for "demographic rearmament" and expanded parental leave to increase birth rates.

EU Commissioner Dubravka Suica stated that migration is a necessity to counterbalance workforce contraction. The Commission intends to mitigate labor shortages and strained public budgets by boosting productivity through AI and increasing labor participation among women, youth, and the 20 percent of working-age Europeans currently outside the labor force. Suica urged that demography be integrated into all major policy decisions to develop a longevity economy.