UBS Predicts 50% Probability of Democratic Midterm Sweep
UBS assigns a 50% probability to Democrats winning the U.S. mid-term elections, citing President Donald Trump's low approval rating and economic pressures.
UBS assigned a 50% probability to a Democratic sweep of the U.S. mid-term elections scheduled for November 3. The financial services firm cited President Donald Trump's negative net approval rating of -21% as a primary driver of the shift.
According to the report, Republican candidates face a difficult environment caused by surging mortgage rates, high gas prices, and an unpopular war with Iran. To secure control of the House of Representatives, Democrats must gain three seats, while a net gain of four seats is required for a Senate majority.
UBS noted that while Republicans are expected to retain seats in strongly Republican districts, enough seats are shifting toward Democrats to make a change in control likely. The firm warned that any outcome would likely result in narrow majorities, limiting the ability to pass major legislation without bipartisan support. Additionally, a divided government would increase the risk of debt-limit brinkmanship and government shutdowns.
