Labour Overtakes Reform UK in Polls Following Burnham's Appointment

The Labour Party has overtaken or caught up with Reform UK in national opinion polls for the first time since early 2025, following the appointment of Andy Burnham as prime minister on July 20. This shift, termed the "Burnham bounce," is attributed to high-profile cost-of-living measures introduced during his first week, including axing VAT from electricity bills, capping bus fares at £2 outside London, and reducing business rates for pubs and live music venues by 20%.

Polling data shows varying results. A More in Common survey places Labour at 28% and Reform UK at 24%, while Survation records Labour at 26% and Reform UK at 24%. Other data from YouGov shows the two parties tied at 22%. Projections from the UK Polling Report and Electoral Calculus suggest Labour would be the largest party in the next general election, though they would likely fall short of an overall majority.

Simultaneously, Reform UK has seen a decline in support. Leader Nigel Farage is facing investigations by the Metropolitan Police and parliamentary watchdogs into undeclared gifts, including a reported £5 million from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne. While Farage denies wrongdoing and claims the probes are politically motivated, he has also faced voter anger during a byelection in Clacton.

Despite the polling momentum, Burnham has ruled out an early general election before 2029, stating his intention to honor the government's manifesto.