Social Security 2027 COLA Projections Reach 3.6%

The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 14, following the release of September inflation data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Current projections from advocacy groups place the increase between 3.5% and 3.6%, which would be the largest raise in four years and a significant increase over the 2.8% adjustment implemented in January 2026.

AARP projects a 3.6% increase, while Senior Citizens League estimates 3.5%. If the latter is accurate, the average monthly benefit would rise from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98. This would mark the first time since the 1990s that beneficiaries have received six consecutive years of increases of at least 2.5%. Analysts attribute this trend to a "Trump bump," citing inflation driven by President Donald Trump's July 2026 global tariffs and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following military attacks against Iran.

Despite the projected raise, the Senior Citizens League reports that benefits lost 13.7% of their buying power between 2016 and 2026. The group argues that the current inflation metric, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, fails to account for the specific healthcare costs faced by retirees. They are urging the United States Congress to adopt a seniors-specific index.

Net gains may be further offset by rising Medicare Part B premiums, which are estimated to increase to $209.50 per month. Additionally, the Social Security Board of Trustees warns that higher payouts may accelerate the depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, which is forecast to run dry by the fourth quarter of 2032.