UC San Diego Poll Shows Low Trust in Midterm Elections

A national survey of 5,016 adults conducted by the UC San Diego Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections reveals that fewer than half of Americans believe the 2026 midterm elections will be free and fair. Only 49% of respondents expressed this belief, while 23% did not and 28% remained unsure.

The data indicates a sharp decline in confidence regarding the accuracy of vote counting across all political affiliations since the 2024 election. While voters share broad concerns over gerrymandering, foreign interference, and AI-generated deepfakes, other issues remain deeply polarized. Republicans express higher distrust in mail-in ballots and the prevention of noncitizen voting. Conversely, Democrats and independents are more concerned with voter intimidation and obstacles to casting ballots.

Partisan divisions are particularly evident regarding the potential presence of United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents at polling sites. While 60% of Democrats say such a presence would lower their confidence in the count, 46% of Republicans say it would increase it. These findings follow repeated claims of voter fraud by President Donald Trump and warnings from Democrats regarding election interference.