Polls Predict Deadlock in Upcoming Israeli National Elections
Final polls suggest neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot will secure a Knesset majority in Tuesday's elections, likely leading to prolonged coalition bargaining.
Israel is scheduled to hold national elections on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, with final polling indicating a likely deadlock in the 120-seat Knesset. Recent data from major television networks Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13 show Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party leading, with projections of 22 to 23 seats. Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party follows with 19 to 21 seats, while Naftali Bennett's Together party is projected to win 14 to 15 seats.
Statistical simulations suggest neither the right-wing bloc nor the opposition bloc will reach the 61 seats required for a majority. Most simulations place both camps around 52 seats, though Channel 12 projects the opposition with 56 seats against 50 for the coalition. This leaves Arab parties, holding approximately 15 seats, as the balance of power. In suitability surveys for Prime Minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 44% to 38% in two of the three major polls.
The outcome is expected to trigger weeks of coalition bargaining. Potential results include a minority government, a unity government excluding Netanyahu, or a seventh election since 2019. Complicating these negotiations are the positions of Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom have ruled out serving in a government with Netanyahu.
