Social Security 2027 COLA Forecasts Range From 3.4% to 3.6%

The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Current forecasts from advocacy groups and analysts project a benefit increase between 3.4% and 3.6%, which would exceed the 2.8% adjustment provided in 2026. The Senior Citizens League recently lowered its projection to 3.6% from an earlier estimate of 3.8%, while AARP estimates a 3.5% raise.

These projections are driven by inflationary pressures linked to the policies of President Donald Trump, including global tariffs and economic disruptions from the Iran war, specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If these figures hold, 2027 will be the sixth consecutive year of payout boosts of at least 2.5%, a trend not seen since the period between 1988 and 1997. The 2027 COLA is also expected to outpace Medicare Part B premium increases for the first time since 2023.

The final rate will be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics using average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) readings from July, August, and September. While the increase would support approximately 75 million Americans, the AARP Public Policy Institute warned that a separate proposal to shift to a flat-rate COLA system could cause significant cumulative losses for 80% of beneficiaries. The official adjustment will take effect in January 2027, with personalized notices sent to beneficiaries in December.