UK Consumer Confidence Hits Largest Monthly Increase Since 2023

UK consumer confidence rose six points in July to minus 17, marking the largest monthly increase since November 2023. GfK data attributes this trend, dubbed the 'Burnham bounce,' to the appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister on July 20, summer heatwaves, and England's performance in the FIFA World Cup. While the headline index remains negative, confidence in personal finances moved into positive territory at one, and the Major Purchase Index rose eight points.

In his first week in office, Prime Minister Burnham declared his administration a "cost of living government" and vowed to dismantle economic policies from the 1980s Thatcher administration. To address immediate pressures, Burnham and Chancellor John Healey introduced measures including VAT cuts on electricity bills and the restoration of the £2 bus fare cap.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, noted that the rise reflects a sense of a fresh start. However, GfK warns that sustainable improvement will require the government to consistently address persistent low economic growth and deep cost-of-living challenges. The GfK survey was conducted between July 1 and July 14, capturing expectations prior to the Prime Minister officially taking office.