Flávio Bolsonaro Launches Presidential Bid as Lula Leads Polls

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro formally launched his candidacy for the October 4 presidential election at a Liberal Party (PL) convention in São Paulo. The event featured an endorsement from Argentine President Javier Milei, who received military honors and the Order of the Great Cross from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas during his visit. Milei's intended visit to former President Jair Bolsonaro in Brasília was blocked by Supreme Federal Tribunal Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

Bolsonaro, who is seeking to succeed his father—currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup—faces a challenging path. A Datafolha poll released July 24 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 48% to Bolsonaro's 43% in a potential runoff scenario. In a first-round scenario, Lula holds 40% while Bolsonaro follows at 32%.

The campaign has been hampered by several scandals, including an investigation into alleged ties to a bank fraud probe involving Daniel Vorcaro and a public rift with his stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro. Although the two have since reconciled, the conflict impacted his standing with female and evangelical voters. Additionally, Bolsonaro is facing political backlash after the United States government under Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods. Some business leaders blame Bolsonaro for the tariffs following his recent visit to the White House, despite his requests to the administration to postpone them.