Iran Blockades Strait of Hormuz Amid Tensions With U.S.

Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted almost entirely to a corridor designated by Iran, as Tehran rejects the International Maritime Organization's Traffic Separation Scheme and warns against the use of a U.S.-promoted southern route near Oman. This escalation follows a conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with a U.S.-led campaign that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. While the U.S. and Iran have entered a fragile pause in airstrikes, maritime coercion continues. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has used warning shots to divert vessels from unauthorized routes, including six ships on July 27.

Shipping volumes have dropped significantly, with daily transits falling from 45 to approximately 13. Market analysts note that high insurance premiums have crippled the U.S.-backed Omani route, pushing oil supply recovery estimates to early 2027. In response to a proposal by President Donald Trump to use frozen Iranian assets to compensate damaged ships, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters threatened to bar any participating company or country from transiting the strait.

Diplomatic efforts remain strained. Iran proposed a temporary arrangement to Oman that would grant Tehran greater control over traffic routing, rejecting Omani suggestions for an equal division of routes. Meanwhile, shipping traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has remained more robust, though Yemeni officials warn that Houthi militants are attempting to replicate Iran's control strategy to disrupt Red Sea gateways.