Senior Citizens League Predicts 3.5% Social Security COLA Increase

The Senior Citizens League projects that Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) will result in a 3.5% benefit increase for 2027. This projection, based on a statistical model of July and August Consumer Price Index data, would represent one of the largest increases in 35 years and exceed the 2.8% adjustment seen in 2026.

The organization attributes this projected rise to inflation driven by President Donald Trump's tariffs and energy supply disruptions resulting from the war in Iran. Additionally, the Federal Reserve System has identified the build-out of artificial intelligence infrastructure as a contributing inflationary force. Despite the projected increase, beneficiaries may experience smaller net gains due to expected rises in Medicare Part D deductibles and Part B premiums.

The Social Security Administration will determine the official COLA following the Bureau of Labor Statistics' release of September inflation data on October 14, 2026. While short-term adjustments are pending, the program faces long-term instability. Federal trustees project that retirement and survivor trust fund reserves could be exhausted by the fourth quarter of 2032, which would leave only 78% of scheduled benefits payable without legislative intervention.